RBA QE Would be About Lowering Exchange Rate

By Sophia Rodrigues

I've spent a bit of time researching whether the RBA will do QE, at what point they will do it, and in what form that would be. I always believed QE will happen well before the cash rate falls to zero, and I think Gov. Lowe hinted at this at the Parliamentary testimony today. That means we might see QE after two more cash rate cuts to 0.5%. The RBA is likely to buy government securities with the main aim of bringing down their yields, so foreigners (who hold a large portion of these) will sell. The main impact would be via exchange rate, and that's exactly what the RBA would want. The economy needs a lower exchange rate more than it needs lower interest rates. And this is the best way to try and achieve it (Time will tell how effective it might be). The other option is intervention in the forex market. Will RBA consider it at some point? I will not discount it.