Big Four Banks Forecast for RBA Cash Rate
By Sophia Rodrigues
Published On 17 Sep 2021 , 10:50 AMBig four banks' forecast for the RBA cash rate:
--ANZ expects first rate hike in 1H of 2024. "Our 'expected value' for the cash rate by early 2023 is above 0.1%, even though our central forecast is that the RBA won’t lift it until the first half of 2024."
--CBA expects rate hike in May 2023. "We retain our call for the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate from May 2023 whilst acknowledging the risks are skewed towards a later date for lift off."
--Westpac expects first hike in 1Q of 2023. Forecast for cash rate is 25bps 1Q 2023, 50bps 2Q 2023 and 75bps 4Q 2023.
--NAB expects first hike in 2024. "We think the first increase in the cash rate target could be 40bps to 0.50%, given the actual cash rate is likely to remain nearer the bottom of the corridor than the official target rate."
LATEST SNIPPETS
Expect Dovish RBA Statement, Refined Forward Guidance
It is very unusual for both market and economists to be strongly expecting a particular outcome (hold) for a RBA boar...
Published on : 05 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMAustralia: More Reason to Buy vs Rent Dwelling
More reason to buy vs rent? For the first time since at least 2007, gross rental yields for properties in Australia&#...
Published on : 01 Nov 2019 , 12:00 AMWill RBA Debate Further Easing at Nov Meeting?
Even before the RBA Nov board meeting begins, I am curious to find out if there will be a vigorous debate about...
Published on : 30 Oct 2019 , 07:21 AMRBA Should Cut Now to Avoid QE
A few weeks back I wrote an article about how in theory the RBA could avoid QE, but to do so requires continuation of...
Published on : 31 Oct 2019 , 07:15 AMAustralia: Housing Group Numbers Disappoint Most in CPI
The most disappointing numbers in Australia Q3 CPI are the ones for housing group. Rent rose 0.4% y/y (and below 1.0%...
Published on : 30 Oct 2019 , 07:13 AMChallenges of Communication. AOFM Tender Doesn't Sell Fully
Challenges of communication!
This morning a 3-mo Aussie T-note auction received lukewarm response --A$936m...
Published on : 24 Oct 2019 , 07:08 AMRBA Debelle's speech is Dovish
RBA Debelle: Monpol is concerned about aggregate outcomes for inflation and unemployment. In that regard, unemploymen...
Published on : 17 Oct 2019 , 07:07 AMSocial Media Lesson for RBA
A social media lesson for the Reserve Bank of Australia. This morning the RBA posted a tweet about their new $20 note...
Published on : 09 Oct 2019 , 07:00 AMRBA Will Cut Tue But Lowe's Speech Not a Clue
Someone asked me this morning whether a strong clue of RBA rate cut today is the fact that Governor...
Published on : 01 Oct 2019 , 11:26 AMRBA QE Would be About Lowering Exchange Rate
I've spent a bit of time researching whether the RBA will do QE, at what point they will do it, and in what...
Published on : 09 Aug 2019 , 11:19 AM