Big Four Banks Forecast for RBA Cash Rate

By Sophia Rodrigues

Published On 17 Sep 2021 , 10:50 AM

Big four banks' forecast for the RBA cash rate:

--ANZ expects first rate hike in 1H of 2024. "Our 'expected value' for the cash rate by early 2023 is above 0.1%, even though our central forecast is that the RBA won’t lift it until the first half of 2024."

--CBA expects rate hike in May 2023. "We retain our call for the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate from May 2023 whilst acknowledging the risks are skewed towards a later date for lift off."

--Westpac expects first hike in 1Q of 2023. Forecast for cash rate is 25bps 1Q 2023, 50bps 2Q 2023 and 75bps 4Q 2023.

--NAB expects first hike in 2024. "We think the first increase in the cash rate target could be 40bps to 0.50%, given the actual cash rate is likely to remain nearer the bottom of the corridor than the official target rate."

LATEST SNIPPETS

RBNZ lowers OCR 25bps to 3%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.00%, taking the total cuts in the current ea...

Published on : 20 Aug 2025 , 12:13 PM
RBA trims cash rate by 25bps to 3.6%

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.60%, in line with expectations.

The rate cut...

Published on : 12 Aug 2025 , 02:40 PM
RBA keeps cash rate unchanged at 3.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, defying market expectations for a 25bps cut.&nbs...

Published on : 08 Jul 2025 , 02:53 PM
RBA cuts cash rate to 3.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85%, citing continued easing in inflation as reflec...

Published on : 20 May 2025 , 02:48 PM
RBA lowers cash rate target to 4.10%

The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate by 25bps to 4.10% -- the first rate cut move since November 2020....

Published on : 18 Feb 2025 , 02:41 PM
RBA Cash Rate Unchanged but Key Message Removed

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% but pivoted to a dovish stance by omitting the ke...

Published on : 10 Dec 2024 , 02:40 PM
RBA Cash Rate Remains at 4.35%, Still Vigilant to Upside Risks

The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.35% and retained the key message that it remains vigilant...

Published on : 05 Nov 2024 , 02:44 PM
RBA keeps cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% and reiterated the key message that it is not rul...

Published on : 24 Sep 2024 , 02:37 PM
Australia July monthly CPI up 3.5% y/y

Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator rose 3.5% y/y in July compared with a 3.8% rise in June, data...

Published on : 28 Aug 2024 , 11:40 AM
RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at the August board meeting and reiterated the me...

Published on : 06 Aug 2024 , 02:41 PM