ANZ analysts see NZ in leading position to normalize monpol
By Sophia Rodrigues
Published On 17 Feb 2021 , 11:35 AMForex analysts at ANZ have created an interesting pressure gauge to measure and rank the distance that each G10 economy is from its central bank's broad policy targets. According to the gauge, New Zealand is at leading position, the US is at number two and Australia is at number five. This means RBNZ should be the first one to normalize policy but according to ANZ analysts the relative openness and size of each economy will also play a role in determining when each respective central bank decides to move.
"On this front, with the US in number two position on our gauge, it is likely that most central banks will wait for the cover of a more hawkish Fed to start recalibrating policy. Equally, with the US in second place, it is possible they could be some adjustment to unconventional policies in 2021, even if formal policy rates stay on the lower bound," they wrote in a note.
The researchers are Daniel Been (head of fx), John Bromhead (fx strategist) and Rahul Khare (fx analyst).
LATEST SNIPPETS
RBA Should Cut Now to Avoid QE
A few weeks back I wrote an article about how in theory the RBA could avoid QE, but to do so requires continuation of...
Published on : 31 Oct 2019 , 07:15 AMAustralia: Housing Group Numbers Disappoint Most in CPI
The most disappointing numbers in Australia Q3 CPI are the ones for housing group. Rent rose 0.4% y/y (and below 1.0%...
Published on : 30 Oct 2019 , 07:13 AMChallenges of Communication. AOFM Tender Doesn't Sell Fully
Challenges of communication!
This morning a 3-mo Aussie T-note auction received lukewarm response --A$936m...
Published on : 24 Oct 2019 , 07:08 AMRBA Debelle's speech is Dovish
RBA Debelle: Monpol is concerned about aggregate outcomes for inflation and unemployment. In that regard, unemploymen...
Published on : 17 Oct 2019 , 07:07 AMSocial Media Lesson for RBA
A social media lesson for the Reserve Bank of Australia. This morning the RBA posted a tweet about their new $20 note...
Published on : 09 Oct 2019 , 07:00 AMRBA Will Cut Tue But Lowe's Speech Not a Clue
Someone asked me this morning whether a strong clue of RBA rate cut today is the fact that Governor...
Published on : 01 Oct 2019 , 11:26 AMRBA QE Would be About Lowering Exchange Rate
I've spent a bit of time researching whether the RBA will do QE, at what point they will do it, and in what...
Published on : 09 Aug 2019 , 11:19 AMRBA Won't Give Up on Inflation Target
Few interesting stories 2day about RBA's inflation target. I am finding it hard to believe RBA will give up...
Published on : 25 Jul 2019 , 11:15 AMRBA may Debate 50bps Cut at July meeting
Two weeks ago it seemed RBA would not cut the cash rate in July, let alone lowering it by 50bps. But I did sugge...
Published on : 21 Jun 2019 , 11:13 AMRBA Will Cut Cash Rate Today, Watch Comments on Labor Mkt Capacity
The RBA will cut the cash rate to a new record low at its meeting today and will maintain an easing bias. The market...
Published on : 04 Jun 2019 , 07:33 AM